Seismic vulnerability of existing RC building stocks at territorial scale: a novel probability-tree approach

Abstract

Large-scale seismic risk assessments are essential for predicting the economic and human losses due to earthquakes, with a critical factor being the vulnerability of the building stock. This paper proposes a novel methodology for assessing the seismic vulnerability of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings at various territorial scales, utilizing data from survey forms. The methodology integrates database information with a simplified vulnerability assessment method. A key innovation is the development of a probability tree-based procedure to handle variability due to intrinsic nature of data obtained by survey forms inherent in large-scale surveys, by creating sets of virtual buildings representative of the analysed stock. The outcome of the procedure is a territorial safety index derived through multiple applications of the vulnerability assessment method to the virtual buildings. In this work the proposed methodology is specialized integrating the data available in the CARTIS database with a combined quantitative and qualitative vulnerability assessment method and tested on a case study at different territorial scales, demonstrating its potential for improving seismic risk analysis.