Satellite megaconstellations and collective casualty risks

IF 2.7 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy Pub Date : 2026-08-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI:10.1016/j.spacepol.2026.101749

Ewan Wright, Aaron Boley, Michael Byers

引用次数: 0

Abstract

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Megaconstellations of thousands of satellites are being launched, and will reenter the atmosphere at end of life to avoid generating space debris.
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Satellite designers may aim for their satellites to demise entirely, but there is considerable uncertainty in the degree to which total ablation can be achieved.
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If a satellite does not burn up entirely, it creates a casualty risk.
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Many existing casualty risk thresholds are calculated per satellite, while others apply vastly different thresholds to address collective casualty risk.
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We model the reentry of eleven megaconstellations, finding a 40% collective risk of on-ground casualties if satellites do not burn up entirely.

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卫星巨型星座和集体伤亡风险

•由数千颗卫星组成的巨型星座正在发射，它们将在寿命结束时重新进入大气层，以避免产生太空碎片。•卫星设计者的目标可能是让卫星完全消失，但在实现完全消融的程度上存在相当大的不确定性。•如果卫星没有完全烧毁，就会产生伤亡风险。•许多现有的伤亡风险阈值是按每颗卫星计算的，而另一些则采用截然不同的阈值来解决集体伤亡风险。•我们模拟了11个大型星座的再入大气层，发现如果卫星没有完全烧毁，地面人员伤亡的集体风险为40%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Space Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

36.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Space Policy is an international, interdisciplinary journal which draws on the fields of international relations, economics, history, aerospace studies, security studies, development studies, political science and ethics to provide discussion and analysis of space activities in their political, economic, industrial, legal, cultural and social contexts. Alongside full-length papers, which are subject to a double-blind peer review system, the journal publishes opinion pieces, case studies and short reports and, in so doing, it aims to provide a forum for the exchange of ideas and opinions and a means by which authors can alert policy makers and international organizations to their views. Space Policy is also a journal of record, reproducing, in whole or part, official documents such as treaties, space agency plans or government reports relevant to the space community. Views expressed in the journal are not necessarily those of the editors or members of the editorial board.