Coherence and causal logic in a Social Violence Prevention Model for reducing youth violence: Evidence from Cali, Colombia

Abstract

Motivation

Youth violence is a major public health problem in Cali, Colombia. To address this, a social prevention model was designed to reduce youth violence. However, it is essential to evaluate such models not only in terms of their outcomes, but also from a regulatory perspective and in relation to their causal logic, to assess their internal coherence and theoretical soundness.

Purpose

To evaluate, from a regulatory perspective and in terms of its causal logic, the social prevention model designed to reduce youth violence in Cali, Colombia.

Approach and Methods

A qualitative multimethod study was conducted in three phases.

Findings

The model exhibit moderate internal consistency, aligning their 12 interventions with the expected long-term outcomes. Evidence and expert consensus validate the effectiveness of the multilevel approaches—especially in the individual and relational dimensions—although gaps were identified in the definition of the target population and the theoretical foundation of the community components, which could limit its replicability.

Policy Implications

The model is a scalable roadmap whose successful replication requires strengthening inter-institutional coordination and securing resources for effective impact delivery. Its sustainability requires adapting interventions to local risk profiles and integrating monitoring systems for adaptive management.