Assessing energy policy decision challenges in Türkiye’s built environment industry through fuzzy AHP framework

Abstract

In the context of climate change mitigation, the transition to low-carbon energy systems positions the built environment as a strategic sector for improving energy efficiency, reducing emissions, and advancing sustainable development. However, this transition extends beyond technological advancement and is shaped by interconnected social, economic, environmental, institutional, and technical challenges. This study aims to systematically identify and prioritize the key barriers constraining Türkiye’s low-carbon energy transition in the built environment. Using a multidimensional framework, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) is applied to evaluate five main categories and 17 sub-criteria, explicitly accounting for uncertainty and linguistic ambiguity in expert judgments through fuzzy logic. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the robustness of the prioritization outcomes under alternative weighting scenarios. The results indicate that social (35.37%) and economic (32.58%) challenges represent the most critical constraints, jointly accounting for nearly two-thirds of the overall barrier structure. Incentives and investment risk, public acceptance and engagement, and land acquisition emerge as the top three sub-criteria, with lack of technical standards ranking fourth. Sensitivity analysis confirms the stability of these rankings across different scenarios. These findings underscore the need for integrated policy responses that strengthen social legitimacy, reduce financial risk, and enhance regulatory and technical readiness. Beyond the national context, the proposed framework offers a transferable reference for other developing economies navigating similar low-carbon transition pathways.