Predicting livestream shopping success

IF 8.7 2区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

International Journal of Research in Marketing Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-28 DOI:10.1016/j.ijresmar.2025.12.002

Zekun Liu, Weiqing Zhang, Xiao Liu, Eitan Muller, Feiyu Xiong

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Despite the popularity of the livestream shopping industry—projected to surpass $830 billion in China and $68 billion in the U.S. by 2026—research on identifying the factors that drive success in this industry remains scarce, primarily because of the complexity of this environment. In this study, we use data from Taobao Live, the largest livestream shopping platform, to predict the success of sellers hosting livestream sessions. We develop a scoring model using a comprehensive set of livestream strategies and metrics, including session strategies, product assortment strategies, livestream content metrics, and engagement metrics. We find that incorporating session and assortment strategies and livestream content and engagement metrics improves the accuracy of sales performance predictions by 25.6%. Additionally, we identify the key strategies and metrics that are most predictive of sales performance. The proposed predictive framework not only helps in identifying promising sellers but also enhances the understanding of the complex dynamics of the livestream shopping ecosystem, providing valuable insights for stakeholders such as investors, lenders, suppliers, and platform operators.

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预测直播购物的成功

尽管直播购物行业很受欢迎（预计到2026年，中国将超过8300亿美元，美国将超过680亿美元），但关于确定推动该行业成功因素的研究仍然很少，主要是因为这个环境的复杂性。在这项研究中，我们使用最大的直播购物平台淘宝直播的数据来预测卖家主持直播会议的成功程度。我们使用一套全面的直播策略和指标开发了一个评分模型，包括会话策略、产品分类策略、直播内容指标和参与度指标。我们发现，结合会话和分类策略以及直播内容和参与指标，销售业绩预测的准确性提高了25.6%。此外，我们还确定了最能预测销售业绩的关键策略和指标。提出的预测框架不仅有助于识别有前途的卖家，还有助于增强对直播购物生态系统复杂动态的理解，为投资者、贷方、供应商和平台运营商等利益相关者提供有价值的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Research in Marketing BUSINESS-

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

4.30%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Research in Marketing is an international, double-blind peer-reviewed journal for marketing academics and practitioners. Building on a great tradition of global marketing scholarship, IJRM aims to contribute substantially to the field of marketing research by providing a high-quality medium for the dissemination of new marketing knowledge and methods. Among IJRM targeted audience are marketing scholars, practitioners (e.g., marketing research and consulting professionals) and other interested groups and individuals.