How Many Children Do Iranian Youth Intend to Have?

Abstract

The sharp decline in fertility in Iran represents one of the country's most pressing demographic challenges. This trend has led policymakers to promote childbearing to mitigate further population aging and structural imbalance. This study uses data from the 2017-2018 Iranian National Marriage and Divorce Survey conducted by the Civil Registry Organization, based on a sample of 8,341 individuals preparing for the first marriage, addressing the question: "How many children would you like to have after marriage?" The findings showed that the vast majority of respondents (97.9%) intend to have children, with a mean ideal family size of approximately two children. Gender differences are evident, with women tending to prefer one to two children, while men are more likely to report preferences for three or more. Significant variation is observed across socioeconomic and demographic groups, including education, income, place of residence, and ethnic-religious identity. Rural residents and individuals from larger families report higher famility ideals, whereas urban residents and those with higher education and income tend to prefer smaller families. Overall, the mean ideal number of children is approximately 2.1, corresponding to replacement-level fertility intentions. The finding suggests that the decline in actual fertility below replacement level is primarily driven by economic and structural constraints rather than a substantial shift in fertility preferences. Accordingly, rather than promoting higher fertility per se, policies should focus on enabling young couples to realize their existing childbearing intentions, particularly during the early years of marriage.