Hysteresis of Global Wind Energy Resources Under Symmetric CO₂ Forcing

Abstract

Wind energy is central to global decarbonization strategies, yet its reversibility under atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal remains poorly understood. Here, we quantify the hysteretic response of global wind energy resources to symmetric CO₂ forcing by combining a large ensemble of Earth system model simulations with an industrial wind turbine power curve. The forcing pathway consists of a 1% yr⁻¹ increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration followed by an equivalent decrease, allowing a direct comparison of wind power responses along the CO₂ increase and removal trajectories. Hysteresis is defined as the path-dependent difference in wind power at identical CO₂ concentrations, rather than simply incomplete recovery at the end of the forcing cycle. We find that, despite atmospheric CO₂ returning to its initial level, more than half of global land areas exhibit statistically significant hysteretic responses and incomplete recovery in wind energy resources. The persistence of wind-power anomalies is linked to residual surface temperature anomalies and delayed recovery of large-scale atmospheric circulation. These results indicate that many terrestrial wind-energy resources fail to fully recover following CO₂ removal, highlighting widespread hysteretic behavior. For energy planning, these climate memory effects and region-specific hysteretic risks should be considered in future infrastructure decisions.