Weight Loss Improves Predicted 10-Year MACE and Type 2 Diabetes Risk, but Benefits Partially Rebound at 1 Year

IF 4.9 2区医学 Q1 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

Obesity Pub Date : 2026-09-26 Epub Date: 2026-08-23 DOI:10.1002/oby.70291

Abdelrahman M. Elshakankiry, Gary R. Hunter, Cátia Martins, Gordon Fisher, W. Timothy Garvey, Carrie R. Howell

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective

This study aimed to quantify changes in predicted 10-year risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) across weight loss, post–weight loss (Post-WL), and 1-year follow-up and to determine whether trajectories varied by exercise modality.

Methods

Sedentary women with overweight (21–49 years) were randomized to Diet+Aerobic, Diet+Resistance, or Diet-only and completed an 800 kcal/day diet until BMI < 25 kg m⁻². Predicted 10-year MACE and T2D risks were calculated using cardiometabolic disease staging equations. Longitudinal changes and adherence effects were analyzed using fractional logit models fit with generalized estimating equations.

Results

Among 221 women (115 African American), mean BMI decreased from 28.3 to 23.9 kg m⁻², with regain to 25.8 at 1 year. MACE risk decreased from Baseline to Post-WL and rebounded from Post-WL to 1 year in all groups (all p < 0.001). Diet-only achieved greater MACE reduction than Diet+Resistance (p = 0.022). T2D risk decreased in all groups (all p < 0.001) but rebounded in Diet+Aerobic and Diet-only. The Diet+Resistance group maintained a significant net reduction at 1 year (p = 0.003). Follow-up exercise adherence was associated with lower T2D risk rebound (p = 0.024).

Conclusions

Weight loss reduced MACE and T2D risks, but both rebounded with weight regain. Resistance exercise may be beneficial in weight loss interventions to prevent progression to T2D.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00067873

查看原文本刊更多论文

减肥可提高10年MACE和2型糖尿病风险，但1年后获益部分反弹。

目的：本研究旨在量化减重、减重后（后wl）和1年随访期间主要不良心血管事件（MACE）和2型糖尿病（T2D） 10年预测风险的变化，并确定轨迹是否因运动方式而变化。方法：久坐的超重女性（21-49岁）被随机分为饮食+有氧，饮食+抵抗或仅饮食，并完成800千卡/天的饮食直到BMI -2。使用心脏代谢疾病分期方程计算预测的10年MACE和T2D风险。采用分数阶logit模型分析纵向变化和粘附效应。结果：221名妇女（115名非裔美国人）的平均BMI从28.3下降到23.9 kg m-2, 1年后恢复到25.8。所有组的MACE风险从基线到wl后均下降，从wl后到1年均反弹（均p）。结论：体重减轻可降低MACE和T2D风险，但两者均随体重恢复而反弹。阻力运动可能有利于减肥干预，以防止进展为T2D。试验注册：ClinicalTrials.gov标识符：NCT00067873。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Obesity 医学-内分泌学与代谢

CiteScore

11.70

自引率

1.40%

发文量

261

审稿时长

2-4 weeks

期刊介绍： Obesity is the official journal of The Obesity Society and is the premier source of information for increasing knowledge, fostering translational research from basic to population science, and promoting better treatment for people with obesity. Obesity publishes important peer-reviewed research and cutting-edge reviews, commentaries, and public health and medical developments.