Epidemiological and Operational Constraints on the Feasibility of Peste des Petits Ruminants Eradication Target by 2030: Necessity for a New Pragmatic Road Map

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) remains a major constraint to small ruminant production and food security, and a global eradication target for 2030 have been set by FAO/WOAH. This review analyses recent evidence on the feasibility of that target by integrating epidemiological indicators, operational performance of vaccination and surveillance systems, and structural drivers that sustain transmission. We find that the main barriers to eradication are not either virological/methodological or programmatic: achieving and sustaining high population immunity in pastoral and highly mobile systems; cold-chain and logistics constraints that reduce effective vaccine delivery; uneven surveillance sensitivity, timeliness, and data quality that limit detection of residual foci; and persistent reseeding via informal trade and transboundary movements. Multihost dynamics at wildlife–livestock interfaces, together with fragility factors such as conflict and climate-driven mobility, further complicate the endgame. Recent incursions into previously free territories highlight that progress is reversible when borders and surveillance systems are stressed. The dominance of PPR virus (PPRV) lineage IV in global spatiotemporal distribution has become increasingly evident in the last 10 years. We conclude that global freedom by 2030 is unlikely without rapid, synchronized improvements in coverage, surveillance performance, and cross-border coordination. A pragmatic pathway beyond 2030 should prioritize risk-based vaccination targeting high-connectivity corridors and markets, routine postvaccination seromonitoring as a decision trigger, strengthened endgame-grade surveillance (including targeted genomic investigation), and regional compacts that align implementation with broader resilience and economic development goals. We suggest that a new, revised global planning consisting of three consecutive phases would be more appropriate and predictable.