Fix-do not ditch-the fundamental niche.

Abstract

The realized niche captures only a fraction of the conditions in which a species can survive and reproduce, yet remains the basis for most predictions of how species respond to global change. No matter how sophisticated species distribution models have become, reliance on the realized niche biases forecasts of population persistence and range shifts. Rapid global change has turned the fundamental niche from a theoretical construct into a mission-critical objective for conservation science. Empirical tools exist to operationalize it. If we stop holding the fundamental niche to higher epistemic standards than the realized niche and treat survival and regeneration data from beyond the realized niche as genuine reflections of it, then we can advance this foundational yet surprisingly nascent research program.