Urban agricultural land transitions in Tokyo: spatiotemporal dynamics, driving mechanisms, and accessibility implications

Abstract

Urban agricultural land in mature urban regions faces development pressure, with implications for both land availability and residents' accessibility to local food systems. However, limited attention has been paid to how land use transitions restructure accessibility outcomes during late-stage urbanization. Using Tokyo as a representative highly urbanized and densely populated case, this study develops a conceptual framework linking socio-economic drivers, institutional and demographic moderators, agricultural land transitions, and accessibility outcomes across two periods (1991/92–2006/07 and 2006/07–2021/22). The analysis integrates a land use transition matrix, a gravity-based accessibility model, spatial explanatory power detection, and path-based modeling to identify key drivers and mechanisms. Results show that agricultural land accessibility declined more sharply in the 2006/07–2021/22 period despite smaller absolute losses of agricultural land, suggesting that the remaining agricultural land had fallen below a level sufficient to buffer the effects of ongoing urban expansion. Notably, areas with dense farmer density and a high concentration of lands designated as “productive green land” exhibited stronger pressures for residential conversion. Population aging was associated with reduced responsiveness of land use decisions to both land price and farmer density. By linking land use transitions with accessibility outcomes, this study provides a framework for understanding how urban agricultural systems are restructured during late-stage urbanization.