Sea‐Level Rise Constrains the Carbon Permanence of Global Mangrove Restoration

IF 12.5 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Global Change Biology Pub Date : 2026-08-17 DOI:10.1111/gcb.71060

Jincheng Wu, Zhe Zhao, Philippe Ciais, Shanshan Song, Chenyi Yuan, Guanghui Lin, Bertrand Guenet, Annemiek Stegehuis, Xiaoshan Zhu, Ruili Li, Ruikun Gou, Yuchen Meng, Minxuan Sun, Wei Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Mangroves are characterized by high carbon sequestration rates, and future changes in mangrove biomass will be impacted by factors such as climate change, sea level rise, and management strategies. Here, we produce a map of present‐day global mangrove aboveground biomass (AGB) based on extensive field observations and satellite data, giving a global mangrove AGB of 1.76 Pg dry matter (DM). After accounting for potential growth to maturity, future changes in climatic and hydrological conditions, possible restoration strategies, and sea‐level rise, the global total mangrove AGB is projected to increase by 16.7% under the low‐warming scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1 and Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, SSP126) and decrease by 19.3% under the high‐warming scenario (SSP585) by 2100. Sea‐level rise encroaching upon the growth space of mangroves will cause a biomass loss of 41.6% in the high‐warming scenario, whereas restoration strategies would only increase AGB by 2.0%. Our study shows that sea‐level rise limits the potential of mangrove restoration to maintain carbon stocks, and regions less constrained by sea‐level rise offer greater potential for the long‐term permanence.

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海平面上升限制全球红树林恢复的碳持久性

红树林具有高固碳率的特点，未来红树林生物量的变化将受到气候变化、海平面上升和管理策略等因素的影响。在此，我们基于广泛的野外观测和卫星数据绘制了当今全球红树林地上生物量（AGB）地图，得出全球红树林地上生物量（AGB）为1.76 Pg干物质（DM）。考虑到潜在的生长到成熟、未来气候和水文条件的变化、可能的恢复策略和海平面上升，到2100年，在低变暖情景（共享社会经济路径1和代表性浓度路径2.6,SSP126）下，全球红树林总AGB预计将增加16.7%，在高变暖情景（SSP585）下减少19.3%。在高变暖情景下，海平面上升侵蚀红树林的生长空间将导致41.6%的生物量损失，而恢复策略只会使AGB增加2.0%。我们的研究表明，海平面上升限制了红树林恢复维持碳储量的潜力，而受海平面上升限制较少的地区提供了更大的长期持久性潜力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Global Change Biology 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

21.50

自引率

5.20%

发文量

497

审稿时长

3.3 months

期刊介绍： Global Change Biology is an environmental change journal committed to shaping the future and addressing the world's most pressing challenges, including sustainability, climate change, environmental protection, food and water safety, and global health. Dedicated to fostering a profound understanding of the impacts of global change on biological systems and offering innovative solutions, the journal publishes a diverse range of content, including primary research articles, technical advances, research reviews, reports, opinions, perspectives, commentaries, and letters. Starting with the 2024 volume, Global Change Biology will transition to an online-only format, enhancing accessibility and contributing to the evolution of scholarly communication.