Determining the climate change impacts on Ohrid’s tourism

Abstract

The climatic conditions and thermal comfort are crucial for the development, marketing, and sustainability of tourism activities in a destination. Ohrid, North Macedonia, has become a popular destination in recent years. This study aims to determine the destination’s suitability for tourism and the impacts of climate change. The Holiday Climate Index (HCI: Urban and HCI: Beach) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) were employed. The HCI has three components: thermal, aesthetic, and physical. The UTCI is composed of four primary meteorological variables and two human/non-meteorological factors. The monthly average index scores were calculated, and the most suitable months for tourism in Ohrid and the impacts of climate change on tourism were determined. Correlations between the thermal comfort indices and the tourism indicators (foreign tourist arrivals and nightly stays) were examined. All three indices showed significant relationships with the tourism indicators on a yearly basis, with UTCI showing the strongest associations. Additionally, the non-parametric Freidman test was used to determine whether there were differences between the thermal comfort indices calculated for 10-year periods. No monotonic trend was found in the HCI: Urban or HCI: Beach scores. UTCI exhibited a significant positive trend of approximately 0.05 °C/year. Ohrid appears to remain climatically suitable for tourism according to HCI, despite a gradual increase in physiological thermal stress indicated by UTCI. The results are expected to support tourism planners, destination managers, and visitors. At the same time, it is believed that they will serve as a guide for tourism marketing and tourism development on behalf of Ohrid tourism.