Present and Future Climate Suitability for Tourism in Western Maharashtra (India): Implications of Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and Regional Climate Model (MIROC5)

Abstract

The climatic changes have direct effect on the tourism economy, as it augment the human discomfort and narrow down visiting periods at tourist destinations. Developing countries including India have high potential for rapid growth of tourism industry but at the same time are considerably vulnerable to climatic changes. The present investigation, therefore, attempted to understand climatic changes (past and future) and their influence on favourability for tourism in coastal and semi-arid regions of Maharashtra. For this, temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed and sunshine duration data of 17 stations for the period between 1981 and 2100 were considered to calculate the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) formulated by Mieczkowski. Parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques were applied to understand trends and step-changes in climatic variables and TCI. It is observed that the Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan Subdivisions experienced rise in annual mean (0.73 and 0.52 °C, respectively) and mean maximum (0.40 and 0.59 °C, respectively) temperature during 1991–2023 period. During the same period, the study area registered marginal (16 to 46 mm) amount of increase in rainfall. The simulated data (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) suggest a considerable rise in annual mean maximum (1.1 to 3.2 °C) and mean (1 to 3 °C) by 2100. Summer and winter seasons (main vacation periods) are very likely to have adverse climate for tourism in future (up to 2100). Rise in temperature (particularly maximum) and humidity will be the prominent factors to amplify discomfort and deterioration of TCI. Moreover, the coastal region may have rainfall as another cause for the same. Broadly, the study area may witness a notable exacerbation in climate favourability for tourism after 2060. The estimated adverse changes in climate have potential to shorten the optimal period for tourism in all season, which may reduce the volume of international and intra-national/domestic tourist and eventually hamper the tourism economy. Therefore, in order to minimize the adverse effects of climate change and maintain tourism development, the concerned government and non-government agencies should have climate-resilient tourism polices and plan.