Gregor Schroeder, Nivedya Madankara Kottayi, Bryce Burdge
{"title":"A Comprehensive Evaluation of Population Forecast Error for San Diego County and Its Jurisdictions.","authors":"Gregor Schroeder, Nivedya Madankara Kottayi, Bryce Burdge","doi":"10.1215/00703370-12784457","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study is the first in the San Diego region to evaluate population forecast error across multiple forecast vintages and increment years spanning more than five decades. Forecast accuracy declines with increasing forecast horizon, while forecast errors are also influenced by population growth rate, population size, and jump-off discrepancy. Findings confirm the generalizability of established relationships in the forecast evaluation literature while extending prior research through analysis of errors in population change rather than solely through population level. Simple naive extrapolation methods frequently matched or exceeded the accuracy of more complex forecasting approaches, demonstrating the importance of benchmarking forecast performance.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1211-1229"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Demography","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-12784457","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study is the first in the San Diego region to evaluate population forecast error across multiple forecast vintages and increment years spanning more than five decades. Forecast accuracy declines with increasing forecast horizon, while forecast errors are also influenced by population growth rate, population size, and jump-off discrepancy. Findings confirm the generalizability of established relationships in the forecast evaluation literature while extending prior research through analysis of errors in population change rather than solely through population level. Simple naive extrapolation methods frequently matched or exceeded the accuracy of more complex forecasting approaches, demonstrating the importance of benchmarking forecast performance.
期刊介绍：
Since its founding in 1964, the journal Demography has mirrored the vitality, diversity, high intellectual standard and wide impact of the field on which it reports. Demography presents the highest quality original research of scholars in a broad range of disciplines, including anthropology, biology, economics, geography, history, psychology, public health, sociology, and statistics. The journal encompasses a wide variety of methodological approaches to population research. Its geographic focus is global, with articles addressing demographic matters from around the planet. Its temporal scope is broad, as represented by research that explores demographic phenomena spanning the ages from the past to the present, and reaching toward the future. Authors whose work is published in Demography benefit from the wide audience of population scientists their research will reach. Also in 2011 Demography remains the most cited journal among population studies and demographic periodicals. Published bimonthly, Demography is the flagship journal of the Population Association of America, reaching the membership of one of the largest professional demographic associations in the world.
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