Determinants of total fertility rate between 2011 and 2023 in Türkiye: a comparative panel analysis.

Abstract

This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of the total fertility rate (TFR) in Türkiye, with a particular focus on regional disparities. A comprehensive panel data analysis, including the fixed effect regression analyses, was conducted by using a dataset from all 81 provinces over the years 2011 to 2023. TFR exhibits substantial variation across the provinces and regions. To have more homogeneous data, the provinces were classified into two groups based on their 2024 TFR values: high-TFR (>1.5) and low-TFR (≤1.5). This classification also aligns with regional categorisation as higher TFR levels are predominantly concentrated in southeastern Türkiye. The analysis investigates the effects of eight key variables on TFR. The results indicate that female marriage age, marriages between cousins, infant mortality rate, and the number of health care professionals are significant factors across provinces, although the strength of these relationships varies across estimation methods. The findings also reveal important divergence between the province groups. While crude death rate and educational attainment emerge as influencing factors in the low-TFR provinces, no significant evidence is found to support their role in high-TFR provinces. The study provides valuable insights into the fertility behaviour in Türkiye and contributes to a better understanding of the fertility pattern in other countries or regions facing similar demographic transitions. The findings can play an important role in developing relevant policies.