Coupled Information-Infection Dynamics Produce Information-Driven Shifts in Epidemic Regimes via Competing Vaccine Narratives.

Abstract

Vaccine-related communication can be harnessed to curb infection; yet, in practice, it often undermines vaccine uptake and sustains transmission even when effective vaccines are available. Our goal is to understand how vaccine information dynamics may shape infection spread within a coupled information-infection modeling framework. We present a coupled information-infection modeling framework that links a standard SVIRS infection-spread model with an integrate-and-fire-inspired information-dissemination model. Vaccine-positive and vaccine-critical active groups disseminate competing information that shapes non-active/hesitant individuals' vaccine attitudes through direct peer influence, threshold-based acceptance, and persistence of engagement, while infection prevalence can feed back by amplifying caution. The evolving vaccine attitudes modulate vaccination uptake, and the model tracks the joint evolution of information dynamics and epidemic trajectories. Our analysis shows that, under the assumed coupling, information dynamics can shift the system among qualitatively distinct infection outcomes. In particular, reducing resistance to vaccine-positive information and sustaining vaccine-positive engagement can move the system toward lower-endemic regimes more reliably than changes focused only on weakening vaccine-critical engagement, for the parameter ranges considered here. These findings highlight the potential importance of information dynamics in epidemic modeling and suggest that sustained vaccine-positive engagement can be an important qualitative mechanism for reducing long-term infection burden.