Navigating New Trade Barriers: Data-Factor-Driven Digital Resilience for High Quality Development in Cross-Border E-Commerce Amid Policy Tightening

Abstract

Cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) is projected to reach a $2.5 trillion global market by 2025; however, tightening de minimis policies, which exempt low-value imports from duties, threatens its growth by introducing compliance costs and trade frictions. From a data factor-empowered digitalization perspective, this study examines the challenges posed by such regulatory shifts and the moderating role of digitalization in sustaining CBEC resilience, using a fixed effects panel regression across 50 countries (2015–2024). Drawing on institutional theory and the resource-based view, we test eight hypotheses to assess how de minimis tightening, tariffs, nontariff measures (NTMs), and customs complexity impact CBEC performance, and whether digitalization mitigates these effects. Results reveal that a 10% de minimis reduction correlates with a 14% export decline, NTMs by 5.5% per full coverage, with tariffs marginally negative, although customs complexity shows no effect. Data factor driven digitalization significantly mitigates de minimis, tariff, and NTM impacts, but falls short in customs, highlighting procedural limitations. These findings extend trade theory by quantifying data enabled digitalization in multicountry contexts, critiquing prior case-specific analyses and contribute to the high quality CBEC development under policy tightening. Practically, urge policymakers to balance revenue-driven reforms with SME-friendly digital exemptions, while firms should invest in compliance technologies to preserve $500 billion in potential CBEC losses by 2030.