Persistence of Arctic Ocean acidification under negative emissions

Abstract

Although net negative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are essential to meet climate targets, little is known about how declining atmospheric CO2 levels will affect ocean acidification. Here, by analysing the acidity ([H+]) and corrosivity to aragonite (ΩArag) in eight Earth system models that made simulations under rising then falling CO2 levels, we identify the Arctic as a hotspot for delayed reversibility of ocean acidification. Under falling CO2, Arctic surface waters remain comparatively more acidic, and aragonite-corrosive conditions (ΩArag < 1) persist until atmospheric CO2 drops ~120 ppm below the threshold at which they first appeared under rising CO2. This hysteresis arises from the erosion of the natural surface-layer deficit in dissolved inorganic carbon, initially maintained by sea ice limiting air–sea gas exchange and not fully restored as sea ice recovers during CO2 decline. Thus, the Arctic Ocean experiences not only the greatest acidification but also the most delayed benefits from negative emissions. Changes in the Earth system may persist long after atmospheric CO2 levels decline. This study examines ocean acidification and how it will persist in ocean regions globally, with the Arctic identified as the area that experiences relief from acidification the latest under negative emissions.