Navigating the global expanse of offshore floating photovoltaics: Techno-ecological-economic boundaries decoded by artificial intelligence

Abstract

Offshore floating photovoltaics (OFPV) offer a massive frontier for global clean energy without land competition, yet theoretical estimates ignore severe marine limitations and risks. This paper, for the first time, proposes a novel “virtual expert” framework to capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of marine environments for data-driven suitability assessment of global OFPV potential. Under current-stage assumptions, our analysis reveals that within Exclusive Economic Zones, stringent techno-environmental constraints curtail the initial 14,831,550 TWh/year (128.94 million km²) theoretical potential by 93.7%. This yields a realizable potential of 935,110 TWh/year across 9.04 million km², underscoring the profound impact of technical and environmental thresholds on OFPV expansion. Regionally, Asia dominates in absolute potential, while Africa boasts the highest average suitability, with specific cyclone-exempt African nations achieving 100% “most suitable” coverage as promising early-stage deployment candidates. Constraint analysis identifies water depth as the primary physical barrier, eliminating vast high-radiance areas across Europe, the Americas, and Africa. Meanwhile, sea ice and marine protected areas impose absolute exclusions in high-latitude and ecological hotspots, whereas low-latitude deployments—notably in Asia and Oceania—demand robust tropical cyclone resilience. Furthermore, spatially resolved techno-economic assessments reveal that while unconstrained marine areas achieve an average levelized cost of energy of 9.16 US cents/kWh under standardized economic assumptions, some constrained zones nevertheless retain relatively favorable solar economics, suggesting that deep-water station-keeping and cyclone-resilient floating structures may become high-priority R&D directions for future OFPV innovation. Ultimately, these findings demonstrate that OFPV deployment is inherently a highly localized spatial optimization challenge, our framework providing a macro-siting tool to assist stakeholders in balancing clean energy expansion with marine conservation and environmental risk mitigation.