{"title":"Prevalence of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in South Asia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.","authors":"Faiza Afzal, Imtiaz Ahmad, Kainat Khalid, Ikram Bashir, Sohail Akhtar","doi":"10.1007/s12020-026-04711-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Although South Asia exhibits a considerable burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), the numbers of undiagnosed T2DM remains inadequately characterized at the regional level. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to approximate the pooled prevalence of undiagnosed T2DM among the general adult population and to assess country-specific variations in South Asian countries.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A comprehensive literature search was directed in PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science for studies published between 1994 and 2022. Observational studies reporting the prevalence of undiagnosed T2DM among adults aged 20-79 years in South Asia were included. By using logit transformation, Random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to assess pooled prevalence. While using Cochran's Q and I² statistics Heterogeneity was calculated, publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test, and subgroup analyses were performed by country.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In this review, a total of 28 studies containing 104,019 participants and 5719 undiagnosed T2DM cases were included. The observed pooled prevalence of undiagnosed T2DM was 6.67% (95% CI: 4.99-8.58%) with considerable uncertainty as indicated by a very wide prediction interval (0.33%-19.75%) and extreme heterogeneity (I² = 98.5%, p < 0.001). At country-level substantial variation was seen, with the highest prevalence in Sri Lanka (30.54%; 95% CI: 17.90-44.82%), followed by Nepal (7.02%; 95% CI: 4.24-10.44%), Pakistan (5.97%; 95% CI: 3.97-8.33%), Bangladesh (5.84%; 95% CI: 5.28-6.42%) and India (5.26%; 95% CI: 3.66-7.14%). The results of Egger's test (t = 1.84, p = 0.0773) suggested no statistical significance evidence of publication bias.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>These findings should be interpreted with attentiveness because of extensive heterogeneity and variability across studies. However, the high number of undiagnosed T2DM in general population of South Asia reflects a great burden and indicates inter-country differences. Therefore, this conclusion highlights the need for advanced surveillance systems, valid diabetes screening, and approach to health care facilities, especially in deprived and high-risk population in the region.</p>","PeriodicalId":49211,"journal":{"name":"Endocrine","volume":"91 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13428718/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Endocrine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-026-04711-7","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Purpose: Although South Asia exhibits a considerable burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), the numbers of undiagnosed T2DM remains inadequately characterized at the regional level. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to approximate the pooled prevalence of undiagnosed T2DM among the general adult population and to assess country-specific variations in South Asian countries.
Methods: A comprehensive literature search was directed in PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science for studies published between 1994 and 2022. Observational studies reporting the prevalence of undiagnosed T2DM among adults aged 20-79 years in South Asia were included. By using logit transformation, Random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to assess pooled prevalence. While using Cochran's Q and I² statistics Heterogeneity was calculated, publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test, and subgroup analyses were performed by country.
Results: In this review, a total of 28 studies containing 104,019 participants and 5719 undiagnosed T2DM cases were included. The observed pooled prevalence of undiagnosed T2DM was 6.67% (95% CI: 4.99-8.58%) with considerable uncertainty as indicated by a very wide prediction interval (0.33%-19.75%) and extreme heterogeneity (I² = 98.5%, p < 0.001). At country-level substantial variation was seen, with the highest prevalence in Sri Lanka (30.54%; 95% CI: 17.90-44.82%), followed by Nepal (7.02%; 95% CI: 4.24-10.44%), Pakistan (5.97%; 95% CI: 3.97-8.33%), Bangladesh (5.84%; 95% CI: 5.28-6.42%) and India (5.26%; 95% CI: 3.66-7.14%). The results of Egger's test (t = 1.84, p = 0.0773) suggested no statistical significance evidence of publication bias.
Conclusion: These findings should be interpreted with attentiveness because of extensive heterogeneity and variability across studies. However, the high number of undiagnosed T2DM in general population of South Asia reflects a great burden and indicates inter-country differences. Therefore, this conclusion highlights the need for advanced surveillance systems, valid diabetes screening, and approach to health care facilities, especially in deprived and high-risk population in the region.
期刊介绍：
Well-established as a major journal in today’s rapidly advancing experimental and clinical research areas, Endocrine publishes original articles devoted to basic (including molecular, cellular and physiological studies), translational and clinical research in all the different fields of endocrinology and metabolism. Articles will be accepted based on peer-reviews, priority, and editorial decision. Invited reviews, mini-reviews and viewpoints on relevant pathophysiological and clinical topics, as well as Editorials on articles appearing in the Journal, are published. Unsolicited Editorials will be evaluated by the editorial team. Outcomes of scientific meetings, as well as guidelines and position statements, may be submitted. The Journal also considers special feature articles in the field of endocrine genetics and epigenetics, as well as articles devoted to novel methods and techniques in endocrinology.
Endocrine covers controversial, clinical endocrine issues. Meta-analyses on endocrine and metabolic topics are also accepted. Descriptions of single clinical cases and/or small patients studies are not published unless of exceptional interest. However, reports of novel imaging studies and endocrine side effects in single patients may be considered. Research letters and letters to the editor related or unrelated to recently published articles can be submitted.
Endocrine covers leading topics in endocrinology such as neuroendocrinology, pituitary and hypothalamic peptides, thyroid physiological and clinical aspects, bone and mineral metabolism and osteoporosis, obesity, lipid and energy metabolism and food intake control, insulin, Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, hormones of male and female reproduction, adrenal diseases pediatric and geriatric endocrinology, endocrine hypertension and endocrine oncology.
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