Global burden of aortic aneurysm from high body mass index and systolic blood pressure in older adults: 1990-2021 and projections to 2050.

IF 3.6 4区医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

Archives of Medical Science Pub Date : 2026-05-28 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI:10.5114/aoms/220767

Chengcheng Zhang, Wenjuan Ying, Yifeng Xiao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: Aortic aneurysm is a life-threatening vascular condition with a high case-fatality rate, yet the specific contributions of modifiable risk factors to its burden in the rapidly growing population of older adults remain poorly quantified. This study aimed to quantify the mortality and disability burden of aortic aneurysm attributable to high body mass index and high systolic blood pressure in adults aged 60 years and older from 1990 to 2021, and to project future trends to 2050.

Material and methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we analysed deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories. We assessed socio-demographic inequality using the slope index of inequality and concentration index, decomposed changes into demographic and epidemiological drivers, and projected future trends using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. Trends are reported as average annual percentage changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) or confidence intervals (CIs).

Results: In 2021, high body mass index (BMI) accounted for 9,476 deaths (95% UI: 4,908-16,032) and 164,396 DALYs (86,431-277,024) globally (age-standardised death rate (ASDR) = 0.91; age-standardised DALY rate 15.33 per 100,000). High SBP accounted for 23,131 deaths (16,746-30,145) and 385,281 DALYs (281,872-495,327) (ASDR = 2.24; DALY rate 36.17 per 100,000). Burden was highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in East Asia; men exceeded women across ages. From 1990 to 2021, AAPC declined for high BMI (deaths -1.10; DALYs -1.13) and more steeply for high SBP (deaths -1.67; DALYs -1.70). Socioeconomic inequality narrowed over time. Projections to 2050 indicate rising absolute counts due to population ageing, despite stable or declining rates.

Conclusions: These findings support strengthened hypertension control and sustained obesity prevention, particularly in older men and high-burden regions, alongside improved access to screening and vascular care.

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老年人高体重指数和收缩压导致的全球主动脉瘤负担：1990-2021年和2050年的预测

引言：主动脉瘤是一种危及生命的血管病，病死率高，但在快速增长的老年人群体中，可改变的危险因素对其负担的具体贡献仍然缺乏量化。本研究旨在量化1990年至2021年60岁及以上成年人因高体重指数和高收缩压导致的主动脉瘤死亡率和残疾负担，并预测到2050年的未来趋势。材料和方法：使用全球疾病负担（GBD） 2021研究的数据，我们分析了204个国家和地区的死亡和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）。我们使用不平等斜率指数和集中指数评估社会人口不平等，将变化分解为人口和流行病学驱动因素，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来趋势。趋势报告为具有95%不确定区间（ui）或置信区间（ci）的平均年百分比变化。结果：2021年，全球高体重指数（BMI）占9476例死亡（95% UI: 4908 - 16032）和164396例DALYs(86431 - 277024)(年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR) = 0.91；年龄标准化伤残调整生活能力比率（15.33 / 10万）。高收缩压导致23,131例死亡（16,746-30,145）和385,281例DALYs (281,872-495,327) （ASDR = 2.24； DALY率36.17 / 100,000）。东欧的负担最高，东亚最低；各个年龄段的男性都超过了女性。从1990年到2021年，高BMI患者的AAPC下降（死亡率-1.10;DALYs -1.13），高收缩压患者的AAPC下降更急剧（死亡率-1.67;DALYs -1.70）。随着时间的推移，社会经济不平等逐渐缩小。到2050年的预测表明，尽管人口老龄化率保持稳定或下降，但由于人口老龄化，绝对数量仍将上升。结论：这些发现支持加强高血压控制和持续预防肥胖，特别是在老年男性和高负担地区，同时改善筛查和血管护理的可及性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Archives of Medical Science 医学-医学：内科

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

7.90%

发文量

139

审稿时长

1.7 months

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