Changing Dynamics of the Arctic Ocean–Ice System: Drivers, Feedbacks, and Future Trajectories

Abstract

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and disproportionate climate change, driven by tightly coupled interactions among the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. This review synthesizes current understanding of historical and projected changes in the Arctic ocean–ice system, emphasizing the role of variability across timescales—from seasonal to multidecadal—in shaping observed trends. We highlight the interconnected nature of Arctic system components, focusing on feedbacks—including emerging coupled ocean–ice processes—pathways, and mechanisms that link variability and long-term change. Particular attention is given to state-dependent and potentially nonlinear responses, as well as to the roles of remote forcing and increasing connectivity with sub-Arctic regions. We assess the relative contributions of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing, highlighting key challenges in attribution, and identify priorities for improving future projections. This synthesis provides a process-based framework for understanding Arctic change and its growing influence on the global climate system.