Invest in African countries? Evaluation of risk based on the cloud model

IF 5.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI:10.1016/j.seps.2026.102419

Min An, Bo Qiu, Jiahao Zhang, Mingyue Teng, Shanshan Xie

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Abstract

In the background of economic globalization, Africa has become a hot destination for foreign investment by its vast market and rich resource. However, risks such as political instability and weak economic foundation in African countries have brought great uncertainties to the effectiveness of investment. To assess the investment risk objectively and scientifically in Africa, the statistical data of 13 key African countries in the period of 2016–2020 are selected from the recent African Attractiveness Survey Report. Secondly, this paper establishes an investment risk index system covering politics, economy, law, society, and environment. Then use the coefficient of variation method to determine the degree of influence of each indicator from both temporal and spatial perspectives. Finally, apply the cloud model which can consider the fuzziness and randomness to measure the investment risk in Africa from the temporal and spatial perspectives. The results show that: (1) from the perspectives of time and space, the weights of indicators in the economic and social dimensions are 0.19 and 0.27, and 0.36 and 0.24, respectively. (2) The level of investment risk varies significantly among 13 African countries, with Tanzania and Kenya having a total score higher than 0.600 and being the top targets for investment. (3) The investment risk of key African countries fluctuated down from 2016 to 2019, but increased significantly in 2020, with the total score between 0.300 and 0.500.

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投资非洲国家？基于云模型的风险评估

在经济全球化背景下，非洲以其广阔的市场和丰富的资源成为外商投资的热点。然而，非洲国家政治不稳定、经济基础薄弱等风险给投资的有效性带来了很大的不确定性。为了客观、科学地评估非洲的投资风险，本文从近期的《非洲吸引力调查报告》中选取了非洲13个重点国家2016-2020年的统计数据。其次，建立了涵盖政治、经济、法律、社会、环境四个方面的投资风险指标体系。然后利用变异系数法从时间和空间两个角度确定各指标的影响程度。最后，应用考虑模糊性和随机性的云模型，从时间和空间的角度对非洲投资风险进行度量。结果表明：(1)从时间和空间的角度看，经济和社会维度的指标权重分别为0.19和0.27,0.36和0.24。(2) 13个非洲国家的投资风险水平差异显著，其中坦桑尼亚和肯尼亚的总得分高于0.600，是投资的首选目标。(3)非洲重点国家的投资风险在2016 - 2019年波动下降，但在2020年显著上升，总得分在0.300 - 0.500之间。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

13.10%

发文量

294

审稿时长

58 days

期刊介绍： Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.