Modelling and simulation trends in thermochemical conversion of municipal solid waste into energy and value-added chemicals

Abstract

The rapid accumulation of municipal solid waste (MSW), coupled with growing global energy insecurity, has intensified interest in sustainable waste-to-energy and waste-to-chemicals pathways. Thermochemical conversion technologies, including pyrolysis, gasification, and combustion, offer promising routes for MSW valorization; however, their efficiency and economic viability are constrained by feedstock heterogeneity, reaction complexity, and scale-up challenges. Pretreatment strategies such as torrefaction have emerged as effective ways to enhance MSW fuel properties by increasing energy density, reducing moisture content, and improving feedstock stability, thereby enabling more efficient downstream thermochemical processing. This study presents a PRISMA-compliant systematic review of modeling and simulation trends in the thermochemical conversion of MSW, with particular emphasis on torrefied MSW, over the period 2015–2025. A structured literature search using the Web of Science database identified 972 records, from which 40 modeling-focused studies were included after rigorous screening and eligibility assessment. The review synthesizes advances in process simulation (e.g., Aspen Plus), computational fluid dynamics (CFD), kinetic and thermodynamic modeling, and emerging hybrid and artificial intelligence (AI) data-driven frameworks, highlighting their roles in predicting reaction mechanisms, product distributions, and system performance. The results indicate rapid growth in modeling research in recent years; however, only 10 of 40 studies provide experimentally validated, system-level, and industrially relevant modeling frameworks. Key knowledge gaps are identified in catalyst development, kinetic parameterization, uncertainty quantification, and large-scale process integration. Overall, the findings underscore the transformative potential of computationally informed thermochemical strategies to support renewable energy security, process optimization, and circular economy objectives in MSW management.