{"title":"Discriminatory Tariffs, Trade Diversion, and the Economic Impacts of Recent U.S. Trade Policy","authors":"Satoru Kumagai","doi":"10.1111/aepr.70027","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>This paper examines the economic impacts of trade wars and economic decoupling using the Institute of Developing Economies' Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM), focusing on Trump's “reciprocal tariff” policies announced on April 2 and July 31, 2025. Simulation analysis reveals that protectionist trade policies generate substantial negative-sum outcomes, with the United States experiencing GDP contractions of 3.0%–5.2% and the global economy declining by 0.8%–1.3%. The analysis shows that relative tariff rates across countries, rather than absolute levels, become the primary determinant of economic impacts for individual countries. Regional economic integration emerges as an effective mitigation strategy, with RCEP deepening generating 1.4 percentage-point gains in GDP and CPTPP deepening providing 0.6 percentage-point gains for member countries.</p>\n <p><b>JEL Classification:</b> F13, F15, F17.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":45430,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Policy Review","volume":"21 2","pages":"114-128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2026-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asian Economic Policy Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aepr.70027","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2026/5/12 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper examines the economic impacts of trade wars and economic decoupling using the Institute of Developing Economies' Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM), focusing on Trump's “reciprocal tariff” policies announced on April 2 and July 31, 2025. Simulation analysis reveals that protectionist trade policies generate substantial negative-sum outcomes, with the United States experiencing GDP contractions of 3.0%–5.2% and the global economy declining by 0.8%–1.3%. The analysis shows that relative tariff rates across countries, rather than absolute levels, become the primary determinant of economic impacts for individual countries. Regional economic integration emerges as an effective mitigation strategy, with RCEP deepening generating 1.4 percentage-point gains in GDP and CPTPP deepening providing 0.6 percentage-point gains for member countries.
期刊介绍：
The goal of the Asian Economic Policy Review is to become an intellectual voice on the current issues of international economics and economic policy, based on comprehensive and in-depth analyses, with a primary focus on Asia. Emphasis is placed on identifying key issues at the time - spanning international trade, international finance, the environment, energy, the integration of regional economies and other issues - in order to furnish ideas and proposals to contribute positively to the policy debate in the region.
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