Precedent-Based Approach to Earthquake Prediction and Possible Ways of Its Implementation

Abstract

In our previously proposed earthquake prediction algorithm Scaling-22, only the earthquake catalog and seismic process self-similarity in a wide energy range are used. However, its implementation is difficult in regions with an insufficient level of catalog representativeness, which includes the Eastern Caucasus. In this regard, in this paper we propose a version of this algorithm adapted to such regions—Scaling-25. Instead of past earthquakes, it uses annual increments of geophysical field parameters closely related to deformation processes in the Earth’s crust. These include high-frequency seismic noise, gravity field, vertical crustal movements, the TAU parameter, and conditionally accumulated seismic energy. Replacing regular observations of geophysical fields with repeated ones at 1-year intervals will significantly reduce their resource intensity.