Suicide in rural South Africa before and during COVID-19: evidence from forensic mortuary data in Limpopo Province.

Abstract

Suicide is a growing public health concern in South Africa, with rural provinces such as Limpopo facing heightened vulnerability due to limited mental health services and socio-economic inequalities. Evidence on the impact of COVID-19 on suicide in rural contexts remains limited. This study examined suicide trends in Limpopo Province and changes associated with the COVID-19 period. A retrospective interrupted time series analysis was conducted using forensic mortality data from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2021, allowing assessment of pre-existing trends and changes following COVID-19 lockdowns. Among 5770 unnatural deaths, 957 were suicides. The proportion of suicides increased from 29.5% in 2019 to 36.9% in 2021. Suicides predominantly occurred among males and young adults, with hanging accounting for over 90% of deaths throughout. Interrupted time series analysis revealed a significant downward trend in suicide cases during the strict national lockdown (Alert Level 5), with a 31% reduction in incidence (IRR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.49-0.98). Less restrictive lockdown levels showed no significant effects. Suicide mortality increased prior to COVID-19, with a subsequent decline during the strictest lockdown period. Stable demographic patterns and methods highlight persistent vulnerabilities and the need for sustained suicide-prevention strategies beyond pandemic.