Sustainable growth in South Africa through the asymmetric effects of oil prices and economic policy uncertainty

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.12.004

Ahmed Samour, Stephen Kelechi Dimnwobi, Brahim Bergougui

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Abstract

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price shocks can have a substantial influence on economic development, nevertheless their asymmetrical impacts on green economic growth are not widely investigated. Therefore, this study examines the asymmetric effect oil price and EPU on green economic growth using advanced nonlinear techniques, and quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2020Q4. The empirical findings show that higher oil price induce a decline in green economic growth, while a decrease in oil price promotes green economic growth. On the other hand, the study found that an increase in EPU has positive and significant effect on green economic growth while a decline in EPU has an adverse and substantial impact on sustainable economic growth. These outcomes highlight the need for decisionmakers in South Africa to effectively leverage rising policy uncertainty to promote green growth while decreasing oil reliance to mitigate the negative influence of higher oil prices and capitalize on the benefits of falling prices.

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南非通过油价的不对称效应和经济政策的不确定性实现可持续增长

经济政策不确定性（EPU）和油价冲击对经济发展具有实质性影响，但它们对绿色经济增长的不对称影响尚未得到广泛研究。因此，本研究采用先进的非线性技术，利用1990年第一季度至2020年第四季度的季度数据，检验了油价和EPU对绿色经济增长的不对称效应。实证结果表明，油价上涨会导致绿色经济增长下降，而油价下跌则会促进绿色经济增长。另一方面，研究发现EPU的增加对绿色经济增长有积极而显著的影响，而EPU的下降对可持续经济增长有不利而实质性的影响。这些结果突出表明，南非的决策者需要有效地利用不断增加的政策不确定性来促进绿色增长，同时减少对石油的依赖，以减轻油价上涨的负面影响，并利用价格下跌的好处。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Policy Modeling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

6.20

自引率

11.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.