Mitigation of temperature-induced vegetable price volatility in urban wholesale markets

Abstract

Vegetables are vital for urban nutrition security, yet their wholesale price stability in response to temperature extremes is poorly understood. Here, analyzing a decade of daily data from 265 Chinese wholesale markets, we find that extreme heat and cold significantly disrupt urban vegetable distribution, raising price volatility. We project that without adaptive interventions, future climate scenarios could translate changes in average wholesale prices into annual national-scale monetary impacts of 57–188 billion CNY by the end of the century. However, our analysis identifies powerful buffers: cities with robust self-sufficiency and efficient transport, alongside vegetables with longer shelf lives and higher market values, exhibit markedly stronger resilience. Most importantly, we show that strategic urban adaptations, such as investing in cold chains and shortening supply chains, could mitigate 56% to 89% of these projected monetary impacts. These findings highlight that targeted investments in urban supply chains are a critical strategy for safeguarding food security in a warming world. Urban vegetable price stability under temperature extremes is poorly understood. Chen et al. show that thermal shocks drive wholesale price volatility, highlighting the need for targeted investments in resilient urban supply chains.