Climate change reshapes resource adequacy risks and optimal renewable energy siting in wind and solar energy systems

Abstract

Deep decarbonization through weather-dependent wind and solar can introduce resource adequacy risks. Climate change compounds these risks by simultaneously reshaping renewable supply and electricity demand in synergistic, region-specific ways. Here we show that long-term adequacy challenges in decarbonized grids arise from the interplay between meteorological conditions and system design, driven by prolonged renewable generation shortfalls tied to fine-scale infrastructure siting choices. Using 12-km climate projections with county-level power system optimization for New England and Texas, we find that climate change can increase resource inadequacy frequency up to fivefold by mid-century as rising cooling demand intersects with renewable resource declines or transmission bottlenecks. However, climate-informed planning provides cost-effective mitigation: Texas maintains adequacy at near-zero cost by pivoting wind capacity westward, while New England requires a modest 2.34% investment increase via solar and transmission expansion near load centres. Our findings demonstrate that achieving climate-resilient, decarbonized grids requires moving beyond aggregate capacity goals towards high-resolution, climate-informed spatial planning that reveals localized siting opportunities. Decarbonized grids may face rising resource adequacy risks as weather-driven renewable variability and climate change jointly affect supply and demand. A high-resolution model shows that these risks stem from multi-day power shortfalls and system design, but can be reduced through region-specific, climate-informed siting and transmission planning.