Triticale (× Triticosecale Wittm.) Production and Breeding Progress in Poland (1992–2023) Under Increasing Drought Risk

Abstract

Poland is the leading global producer of triticale (× Triticosecale Wittm. ex A. Camus ), a cereal combining wheat and rye ancestry, commonly grown on poorer soils than wheat and better than rye. Although triticale is adapted to suboptimal environments, its yields remain sensitive to spring drought, a risk projected to increase under climate change. As the second most widely cultivated cereal in the country, its yield stability is of agronomic and economic relevance. We assessed the effects of drought on triticale yields across six agro‐climatic regions of Poland over the period 1992–2023. Drought intensity and frequency were characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Index and Selyaninov's Hydrothermal Coefficient. Yield trends were estimated using Bayesian linear regression. Over three decades, mean yields increased by 65% in winter and 56% in spring triticale, indicating sustained genetic progress. However, drought events reduced yields by approximately 6%–8% in winter forms and 9%–15% in spring forms, with the highest frequency and impact observed in northern and central‐western regions. Despite recurrent spring droughts, long‐term yield trends remained positive under both normal and dry conditions. These results indicate that breeding‐driven yield gains have not been offset by increasing drought frequency, but improving resilience will require integrating genetic improvement with agronomic measures to mitigate soil water deficits.