Intercity connectivity enhances urban mobility resilience to extreme rainfall

Abstract

It is important to strengthen urban resilience amid the growing extreme weather events under climate change, yet the role of intercity connectivity in shaping such resilience remains understudied. Here using mobility data from 1.1 billion devices across 366 Chinese cities, we show that stronger connectivity enhances intracity mobility resilience, a core indicator of urban functionality, during extreme rainfall. Cities with higher network centrality and stronger ties to wealthier cities exhibit higher resilience, characterized by shorter recovery times, faster rebound and lower total performance loss (TPL). Counterfactual simulations indicate that less developed or constrained networks could increase predicted TPL by 527.1% and 54.7%, respectively. Projections to 2050 suggest that socioeconomic development combined with strategic railway development would reduce median city-level TPL by 72.5–76.1%, avoiding indirect economic losses of 12.8–14.2 billion yuan. Notably, smaller cities benefit more from improved connectivity and prioritizing network enhancement in poorer cities renders the largest gains. Growing extreme weather poses escalating threats to urban functionality. This study shows that higher network centrality and stronger ties to wealthier cities enhance intracity mobility resilience during extreme rainfall, with larger benefits for smaller and poorer cities from targeted investment.