Ideological polarization on anthropogenic climate change is stronger among politicians than among citizens across eight countries.

Abstract

Despite scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, political orientation is often associated with climate beliefs, and such polarization may hinder mitigation efforts. Yet, few studies directly compare politicians' climate beliefs with those of citizens. Here, we used a large cross-national sample of politicians (N = 714) and citizens (N = 18,281) to explore how political orientation predicts climate beliefs and policy support in Australia, Belgium (Flanders and Wallonia), the Czech Republic, Germany, Israel, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Norway. Our results show that right-leaning politicians and citizens express weaker beliefs in anthropogenic climate change than left-leaning individuals. Ideological polarization is substantially stronger among politicians. Notably, right-leaning politicians are even less convinced about climate change than their own voters. These ideological divides are reflected in policy preferences: in both groups, belief in anthropogenic climate change statistically mediates the association between political orientation and support for mitigation policies, with markedly stronger mediation among politicians. Together, the results suggest that ideological gaps in climate beliefs, especially among politicians, may contribute to polarization in support for mitigation measures.