Two universal pathways in demographic transition.

Abstract

Demographic transition, characterised by declines in fertility and mortality, is a global phenomenon associated with modernisation. While typical patterns of fertility decline have been described mainly in Western countries, their applicability to other regions and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using data spanning 1800-2020 from 237 countries and territories, this study identifies two universal pathways in the change in the crude birth rate (births per 1,000 person-years, λ) and period life expectancy at birth (e ₀). Most countries' demographic trajectories follow one of these two pathways or shift between them. These pathways define phases governed by different mechanisms. Phase I, conserving λe ₀, dominated until the mid-20th century and was characterised by high child mortality and steady population growth. By contrast, Phase II, conserving λexp(e ₀/17), has prevailed since 1950 and is marked by low child mortality and steady growth in GDP per capita. A theoretical model considering the trade-off between reproduction and education elucidates the transition between these phases. The transition to Phase II is accelerated by declining educational costs, rising social mobility, and cultural transmission linked to modernisation and Westernisation. This study demonstrates quantitative regularities between fertility and longevity during demographic transition and provides a theoretical lens for their underlying mechanisms.