Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote the Status of Global Agricultural Trade Network?

Abstract

Agricultural security stands as a critical cornerstone of national security and a key domain for global sustainable development. Using export trade data of agricultural products from the 1995–2021 FAOSTAT database, we construct a global agricultural product trade network via complex network analysis. We employ a staggered DID method to examine the BRI's impact on the intensity of agricultural product trade networks and explore its underlying mechanisms. The key findings are as follows: (1) The BRI can significantly enhance the position of participating countries within agricultural product trade networks; (2) the benefits of the initiative are particularly prominent among the least developed countries and low-income, food-deficit countries; (3) through three main channels—an inclusive development effect, cross-border capital allocation effect and agricultural production efficiency effect—the BRI plays multiple roles in boosting the intensity of participating countries' agricultural product trade networks; (4) a subcategory analysis on grains, fruits and vegetables shows that the BRI exerts an apparent positive effect on various types of crucial agricultural product trade networks; (5) tests of spatial effects demonstrate that the BRI produces significant spillover effects, lifting neighbouring countries' positions in the agricultural product trade network.