Bayesian multistate modelling of prefrailty and frailty using microsimulation with weight management interventions for prevention in Asian settings.

Abstract

Background: The prevalence of pre-frailty and frailty is increasing in Asia, resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality in older populations. Modelling frameworks are required to estimate the prevalence of frailty and potential impacts of ongoing population-level nutritional interventions.

Methods: Using a microsimulation sociodemographic model of 3,353,032 individuals from 2011 to 2050, and published estimates from the Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Study 2 of 3270 participants, we developed a Bayesian multistate model of robust, pre-frail, and frail stages with estimated transition probabilities by age, ethnicity, gender, and body mass index category. We then explored four scenarios where weight management interventions are applied that modify the annual distribution of underweight, normal weight, overweight, obese I and obese II individuals.

Results: Here we show that, between 2011 and 2050, the projected overall prevalence of pre-frailty and frailty increases from 44.2% to 49.57% (95% credible interval: 47.60-51.00%), and from 3.2% to 11.97% (7.34-15.60%), respectively. Reductions range from 22,045 (18,430-23,487) to 3,599 (2554-4621) pre-frail individuals and from 62,847 (40,165-91,517) to 15,802 (13,238-17,133) frail individuals when 100% to 5% of both underweight individuals shift to normal weight and obese II individuals move to obese I, respectively. Total healthcare utilisation decreases by 7.1% (3.9-9.4%) to 0.3% (0.2-0.5%) under 100% to 5% intervention coverage.

Conclusions: Frailty prevalence in Singapore is projected to substantially increase by 2050, while population-level weight management interventions could avert cases of both pre-frailty and frailty in older individuals, even at modest real-world effectiveness.