Inflation target credibility and the Taylor rule

IF 1 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2026-07-03 Epub Date: 2026-03-12 DOI:10.1111/coep.70028

Dieter Nautz

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We investigate how the monetary policy of the European Central Bank affects consumers' perceptions about the credibility of the inflation target. Monetary policy is assessed by the gap between the actual policy rate and a Taylor rate to approximate the interest rate expected by the public. Drawing on survey data for German consumers, our results suggest that the massive dent in inflation target credibility observed from 2021 to 2023 could have been ameliorated by a more decisive tightening of monetary policy. Therefore, simple outcome-based interest rate rules may deserve more attention in the communication of monetary policy.

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通胀目标可信度和泰勒法则

我们研究了欧洲央行的货币政策如何影响消费者对通胀目标可信度的看法。货币政策是通过实际政策利率与泰勒利率之间的差距来评估的，泰勒利率近似于公众预期的利率。根据对德国消费者的调查数据，我们的结果表明，从2021年到2023年观察到的通胀目标可信度的大幅下降，可以通过更果断的货币政策收紧来改善。因此，简单的基于结果的利率规则在货币政策的沟通中可能值得更多的关注。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economic Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Contemporary Economic Policy publishes scholarly economic research and analysis on issues of vital concern to business, government, and other decision makers. Leading western scholars, including three Nobel laureates, are among CEP"s authors. The objectives are to communicate results of high quality economic analysis to policymakers, focus high quality research and analysis on current policy issues of widespread concern, increase knowledge among economists of features of the economy key to understanding the impact of policy, and to advance methods of policy analysis.