Projected health and economic impact of PCV20 vaccination in UK children: a dynamic transmission model.

IF 5.6 3区医学 Q1 IMMUNOLOGY

Expert Review of Vaccines Pub Date : 2026-12-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-09 DOI:10.1080/14760584.2026.2696882

Sophie Warren, Jack Said, Joe Trim, Euan Dawson, Michele Wilson, Benjamin M Althouse, Mark Rozenbaum

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Despite the significant impact of longstanding pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use in the United Kingdom (UK), pneumococcal disease burden remains substantial. Higher valent vaccines, such as the 20‑valent PCV (PCV20), could reduce this burden, yet their value in the contemporary UK setting has not been fully assessed using recent data.

Research design and methods: An age-structured dynamic transmission model used post-COVID-19 UK epidemiology (2001-2023) to compare pediatric PCV20 (2 + 1 and 1 + 1) with PCV13 (1 + 1) and PCV15 (1 + 1). Over 10 years, we assessed cost-effectiveness and number needed to vaccinate (NNV), capturing disease cases, deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity and scenario analyses examined key uncertainties.

Results: Over 10 years, both PCV20 schedules were dominant versus PCV13 and PCV15. Versus PCV13, PCV20 1 + 1 and 2 + 1 were projected to avert 448,432 and 499,151 disease cases and save £1.509 and £1.306 billion, respectively. Versus PCV15, PCV20 1 + 1 and 2 + 1 were projected to avert 409,459 and 460,179 disease cases and save £1.424 and £1.221 billion, respectively. NNVs versus PCV13 were lower for PCV20 than PCV15 across both dosing schedules. Sensitivity and scenario results were consistent with the base case.

Conclusion: Pediatric PCV20 implementation in the UK could deliver substantial health gains while improving economic efficiency.

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PCV20疫苗对英国儿童健康和经济的影响：一个动态传播模型。

背景：尽管在英国长期使用儿童肺炎球菌结合疫苗（PCV）产生了重大影响，但肺炎球菌疾病负担仍然很大。高价疫苗，如20价PCV （PCV20）可以减轻这一负担，但它们在当代英国环境中的价值尚未使用最近的数据进行充分评估。研究设计与方法：采用冠状病毒病后英国流行病学（2001-2023）的年龄结构动态传播模型，比较儿科PCV20（2 + 1和1 + 1）与PCV13（1 + 1）和PCV15（1 + 1）。在10年的时间里，我们评估了成本效益和接种疫苗所需的数量（NNV），捕获了疾病病例、死亡、成本、质量调整生命年（QALYs）和增量成本效益比。敏感性和情景分析检查了关键的不确定性。结果：与PCV13和PCV15相比，PCV20和PCV20在10年内均占主导地位。与PCV13相比，PCV20 1 + 1和2 + 1预计可避免448,432和499,151例疾病病例，分别节省1509和13.06亿英镑。与PCV15相比，PCV20 1 + 1和2 + 1预计可避免409,459和460,179例疾病病例，分别节省14.24和12.21亿英镑。在两种给药方案中，PCV20与PCV13的NNVs均低于PCV15。敏感性和情景结果与基本情况一致。结论：在英国实施儿科PCV20可在提高经济效率的同时带来实质性的健康收益。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Expert Review of Vaccines 医学-免疫学

CiteScore

9.10

自引率

3.20%

发文量

136

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Expert Review of Vaccines (ISSN 1476-0584) provides expert commentary on the development, application, and clinical effectiveness of new vaccines. Coverage includes vaccine technology, vaccine adjuvants, prophylactic vaccines, therapeutic vaccines, AIDS vaccines and vaccines for defence against bioterrorism. All articles are subject to rigorous peer-review. The vaccine field has been transformed by recent technological advances, but there remain many challenges in the delivery of cost-effective, safe vaccines. Expert Review of Vaccines facilitates decision making to drive forward this exciting field.