Bayesian Indirect Estimation of Historical Fertility in Europe and US Using Online Genealogical Data

IF 5.3 2区社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Sociological Methods & Research Pub Date : 2026-06-30 DOI:10.1177/00491241261463559

Riccardo Omenti, Monica Alexander, Nicola Barban

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Abstract

A growing number of social scientists use online genealogical data as an alternative digital census of historical populations to study past demographic dynamics. However, the non-representativeness of this data source requires the development of bias-adjusting methods to obtain accurate demographic estimates. We address this challenge by proposing an indirect estimation framework to investigate fertility trends in seven European countries and the United States of America for the historical period 1751–1910, integrating data from the big genealogical database FamiLinx with more conventional data sources. The proposed methods allow for the indirect estimation of the total fertility rate using the number of women aged 15–49 and children under age 5, while accounting for child mortality, age-specific fertility patterns, and biases. Our methodological approaches demonstrate that, when combined with reliable demographic data, online genealogical data can be fruitfully used to examine fertility patterns in countries and periods lacking well-functioning national civil registration systems.

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使用在线家谱数据对欧洲和美国历史生育率的贝叶斯间接估计

越来越多的社会科学家使用在线家谱数据作为历史人口的另一种数字普查来研究过去的人口动态。然而，这种数据来源的非代表性要求发展偏差调整方法，以获得准确的人口估计。为了应对这一挑战，我们提出了一个间接估计框架，将来自大型家谱数据库FamiLinx的数据与更传统的数据源相结合，研究了七个欧洲国家和美国1751-1910年历史时期的生育趋势。拟议的方法允许使用15-49岁妇女和5岁以下儿童的人数间接估计总生育率，同时考虑到儿童死亡率、特定年龄的生育模式和偏见。我们的方法方法表明，当与可靠的人口统计数据相结合时，在线家谱数据可以有效地用于检查缺乏运作良好的国家民事登记系统的国家和时期的生育模式。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sociological Methods & Research Multiple-

CiteScore

16.30

自引率

3.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： Sociological Methods & Research is a quarterly journal devoted to sociology as a cumulative empirical science. The objectives of SMR are multiple, but emphasis is placed on articles that advance the understanding of the field through systematic presentations that clarify methodological problems and assist in ordering the known facts in an area. Review articles will be published, particularly those that emphasize a critical analysis of the status of the arts, but original presentations that are broadly based and provide new research will also be published. Intrinsically, SMR is viewed as substantive journal but one that is highly focused on the assessment of the scientific status of sociology. The scope is broad and flexible, and authors are invited to correspond with the editors about the appropriateness of their articles.