Better breeding leveraging more biology.

Abstract

Climate-driven variability is reducing our ability to accurately predict crop performance across environments, limiting genetic gain in breeding programs. Sustained progress requires predictive frameworks that capture plant-environment interactions across diverse genetics and management conditions. Integrating mechanistic insights from plant science into predictive models offers a path to improve the accuracy, precision, and interpretability of breeding decisions under changing environments. We present emerging hierarchical genome-phenome frameworks and outline how they can be leveraged within breeding programs to evaluate how biological knowledge informs predictions across target environments and supports long-term genetic gain.