A Cost-Sensitive Behavioral Modeling Analysis of the Early Identification and Control of Infectious Diseases.

Abstract

A coupled epidemic-behavior model is proposed to assess how vaccination, testing, and treatment jointly influence early outbreak control, accounting for individual choices based on perceived risk, intervention costs, and policy incentives. In a uniformly mixing population, individuals make strategic decisions regarding vaccination and testing participation based on the trade-offs between personal costs and communal benefits, while the intensity of public health testing adjusts according to infection prevalence; the transmission model includes vaccine efficacy, the probability of false negatives in testing, treatment-related reductions in infectious duration and mortality, as well as nonlinear saturation and awareness feedback mechanisms. Analytical threshold results and simulations (time series and two-dimensional parameter sweeps) indicate that reducing vaccination and testing costs expands the disease-free region, while false negatives consistently diminish the efficacy of increased testing by delaying diagnosis and perpetuating onward transmission; treatment reduces transmission potential but maximizes population benefit when combined with prompt implementation of testing. The approach also delineates parameter regimes in which behavioral feedback provides non-monotonic responses and recurring outbreaks, notwithstanding heightened interventions. The findings suggest that effective epidemic preparedness necessitates synchronized incentives for vaccination and testing, investments to minimize false negatives (such as enhanced test accuracy or repeated testing), and treatment accessibility aligned with rapid case identification to optimize resource distribution and early-response strategies during emerging and re-emerging infectious disease threats.