United or Divided? A Polarized Society's Response to War.

Abstract

Recent global crises have renewed interest in the rally-'round-the-flag phenomenon of public opinion. At the same time, many studies have focused on deepening political polarization across countries. This study synthesizes these two lines of research by exploring how public opinion in a deeply polarized society responds to a security crisis that, in a less polarized context, would likely have led most citizens to close ranks behind a government that declared war on national enemies. We analyzed original panel data collected in Israel before and after the October 7 Hamas attack and during the subsequent Israeli military operation in Gaza. The findings reveal a split pattern: while the vast majority of Jewish Israelis supported the war and trusted the security forces, trust in the government and prime minister remained low. The analysis further identifies two distinct sets of mechanisms of attitude. Support for the war and trust in the security forces were associated with threat perceptions and anger about the enemy's actions. In contrast, trust or mistrust in the government and prime minister hinged on whether respondents attributed blame for the crisis to the government or to the oppositional protest movement, an assessment tied to their preexisting views on the government's controversial "judicial reform" initiative. These results suggest that extreme political polarization can prevent the emergence of a unified rally behind governments during severe security crises, mainly when internal strife produces contested views about the government's responsibility for the crisis.