Mechanistic analysis of COVID-19 cases in Chile during the second half of 2020: an SIR model with dynamic transmission rate.

IF 0.8 Q2 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

Medwave Pub Date : 2026-06-22 DOI:10.5867/medwave.2026.05.3191

Fernando Córdova Lepe, Ranghely Hernández Castañeda, Rodrigo Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo Gutiérrez Jara

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: This article analyzes the prolonged trough phase in the epidemic curve associated with COVID-19 dynamics in Chile during the period July-December 2020, characterized by a relatively stable daily record of 1 000-2500 cases.

Methods: Unlike traditional (, )-SIR models, with constant parameters and associated respectively with the transmission and removal rates in the infectious process, which predict unimodal behavior, we propose an approach based on Contagion Mechanics that incorporates a dynamic law for the transmission rate .

Results: Using official data from the Department of Health Statistics and Information, we demonstrate how this approach quantitatively captures the observed stabilization, resulting from sustained adherence to non-pharmaceutical measures by the Chilean population. The model reveals that maintaining the infection rate below its intrinsic value required sustained collective effort, enabling controlled management of hospital demand during the pre-vaccination stage.

Conclusions: Our results validate the usefulness of Contagion Mechanics in explaining complex epidemiological dynamics and offer new perspectives on the population response to prolonged health interventions.

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2020年下半年智利COVID-19病例的机制分析：具有动态传播率的SIR模型

本文分析了2020年7月至12月智利与COVID-19动态相关的流行曲线延长低谷期，其特征是1 000-2500例的相对稳定日记录。方法：传统的(,)-SIR模型具有恒定的参数，分别与感染过程中的传播率和去除率相关，预测单峰行为，与此不同，我们提出了一种基于传染机制的方法，该方法包含了传播率的动态规律。结果：利用卫生统计和信息部的官方数据，我们展示了这种方法如何定量地捕捉到观察到的稳定，这是由于智利人口持续坚持非药物措施造成的。该模型表明，将感染率维持在其内在值以下需要持续的集体努力，从而能够在疫苗接种前阶段对医院需求进行控制管理。结论：我们的研究结果验证了传染机制在解释复杂的流行病学动态方面的有效性，并为长期健康干预的人群反应提供了新的视角。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Medwave MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Medwave is a peer-reviewed, biomedical and public health journal. Since its foundation in 2001 (Volume 1) it has always been an online only, open access publication that does not charge subscription or reader fees. Since January 2011 (Volume 11, Number 1), all articles are peer-reviewed. Without losing sight of the importance of evidence-based approach and methodological soundness, the journal accepts for publication articles that focus on providing updates for clinical practice, review and analysis articles on topics such as ethics, public health and health policy; clinical, social and economic health determinants; clinical and health research findings from all of the major disciplines of medicine, medical science and public health. The journal does not publish basic science manuscripts or experiments conducted on animals. Until March 2013, Medwave was publishing 11-12 numbers a year. Each issue would be posted on the homepage on day 1 of each month, except for Chile’s summer holiday when the issue would cover two months. Starting from April 2013, Medwave adopted the continuous mode of publication, which means that the copyedited accepted articles are posted on the journal’s homepage as they are ready. They are then collated in the respective issue and included in the Past Issues section.