Spatio-temporal Meteorological Drought Analysis over Tel River Basin of Mahanadi Using Standardized Precipitation Index and Geographical Information System (GIS)

Abstract

Drought is a complex formidable challenge and severe natural disaster that needs to be constantly investigated. In this study, the standardized precipitation indexes (SPI) were determined at short-term and long-term using D-run and D-SPI theories by using IMD precipitation data from 1970 to 2021 in the Tel River Basin, Odisha. Mann–Kendall tests showed no significant trend in rainfall across the grid except for two stations. Maximum drought events were observed at various locations, with the longest event being 253 months at G22 (Nuapada). D-SPI theory recorded 106 drought months in grid number 11, while D-run theory identified 265 drought months in G23 and G30. Temporally, the maximum negative SPI-3 values were − 3.08 in April 1999, − 3.06 in May 1972, − 2.85 in April 2009, and − 2.59 in December 1981. The study also found a severe hydrological drought in the study area in 2021, with consecutive droughts from July through October. Droughts also occurred in June in 2003, 2009, and 2016. Spatial analysis of drought in the last decade (2011–2021) had revealed that at a 3-month scale, July of 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2020 experienced the maximum affected area. Conversely, at a longer scale of SPI-12, the highest impact occurred in 2011, 2015, and 2016. Specifically, in July 2011, severe and moderate drought affected 93.43% of the area, in July 2016, while 89.06% experienced mild to extreme drought. The study reveals drought patterns, aiding policymakers in developing strategies for water management and agricultural systems, promoting socioeconomic growth and environmental protection in India’s most drought-prone areas.