Cost-effectiveness thresholds for initiating osteoporosis treatment in postmenopausal women in China: a microsimulation analysis based on real-world data

Abstract

Summary

This study estimated FRAX^®-based intervention thresholds for initiating osteoporosis treatment in Chinese postmenopausal women, using real-world data from the largest nationally representative osteoporosis survey in China and a validated Markov microsimulation model. Denosumab became cost-effective at a 10-year major osteoporotic fracture probability of 7%, and zoledronate at 12%, whereas alendronate and teriparatide did not reach cost-effectiveness at any FRAX probability evaluated.

Purpose

To determine drug-specific FRAX^® thresholds for cost-effective initiation of osteoporosis treatment (alendronate, zoledronate, denosumab, teriparatide) in Chinese postmenopausal women using real-world data.

Methods

A validated Markov microsimulation model was used to simulate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of no treatment versus alendronate, zoledronate, denosumab, and teriparatide treatment. Baseline patient characteristics and risk factor distribution were sampled from the largest national osteoporosis survey in mainland China. The analysis was conducted from the societal perspective, applying a willingness-to-pay threshold of USD 13,000 per QALY gained (equivalent to one times China’s GDP per capita).

Results

Denosumab was cost-effective at a 10-year major osteoporotic fracture probability of 7% and zoledronate at 12%; neither alendronate nor teriparatide became cost-effective. For denosumab, the cost-effective threshold of 10-year major osteoporotic fracture probability increased with age from 51 to 65 years and then declined in older women, ranging from 5 to 12%. For zoledronate treatment, the cost-effective thresholds of a 10-year major osteoporotic fracture probability were 8% at 51–55 years, 12% at 71–75 years, and 8.5% at 76–80 years.

Conclusions

For Chinese postmenopausal women, denosumab was the most cost-effective treatment, while zoledronate also reached favorable thresholds in selected age groups. Implementing drug-specific FRAX®-guided thresholds may optimize treatment decisions for osteoporosis and support efficient healthcare resource use.