Grassland restoration increases crop yields through local climate regulation

Abstract

Ecosystem protection and food security are often viewed as competing goals, creating a critical policy dilemma for agricultural regions. Here we show that grassland restoration under China’s Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy significantly enhances maize yields through local climate regulation. Using a difference-in-differences design with county-level panel data, we find that restored grasslands reduce growing-season temperatures by 0.1 °C and increase precipitation by 11.48 mm, thereby mitigating heat and drought stress during critical reproductive stages. These changes extend the reproductive growing period by 0.93 days, increase yields by 7.76% (0.437 t ha−1) and reduce crop shortfall risk by 25.9%. Yield gains alone offset more than 80% of programme costs within 5 years and the additional production could alleviate 10% of the maize import deficit in the Northern Spring Maize Region. Our findings highlight ecosystem restoration as a scalable strategy for achieving climate-resilient food security in regions similar to our study area. The authors assess the impacts of China’s Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy on climate and maize yields. They demonstrate reduced temperature and increased precipitation, which are linked to increased crop yields that partially offset restoration costs.