Addressing Uncertainties in Climate–Ecosystem Feedbacks in the Arctic: Ten Priority Research Questions for Integrated Observation and Modeling

Abstract

Positive biosphere–climate feedbacks are likely to amplify the Arctic warming, yet major uncertainties persist regarding their magnitude and underlying mechanisms. Vegetation shifts, permafrost thaw, and microbial responses critically influence greenhouse gas emissions, surface albedo, and energy balance, ultimately feeding back to climate change. However, the capacity of emerging and changing Arctic ecosystems to sustain biogeochemical functions remains unclear. Here, we identify ten priority research questions that address vegetation, soil, and hydrological processes most relevant to climate feedback. We argue that simply expanding field observations is insufficient. Instead, monitoring must be strategically designed—aligned with satellite observations and models across scales, structured for causal inference, and integrated within coordinated international ecological networks to ensure comparability and synthesis. Advancing next-generation, policy-relevant observation systems will support more accurate projections of Arctic feedbacks, improve the ecological realism of Earth system models, and guide policy-making. Given the disproportionate role of Arctic ecosystems in the global climate system, developing coordinated and ecologically grounded monitoring strategies is a crucial step toward reducing uncertainties in biosphere–climate interactions.