Rethinking Ethnicity and Democratic Transition in Ethiopia: Identity, Federalism, and the Crisis of Statehood

IF 2.2 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Politics & Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI:10.1111/polp.70145

Asnake A. Chanie

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Ethiopia's 2018 political opening was widely interpreted as a historic democratic breakthrough, yet the subsequent trajectory revealed deeper structural crises rooted in contested statehood, fragmented national identity, and institutional fragility. Drawing on historical institutionalism, theories of democratization, and frameworks of power and state-building, the article argues that Ethiopia's 2018 transition unfolded without the foundational consensus for democratic consolidation. The modern Ethiopian state, shaped by the expansion of state authority and the uneven incorporation of diverse populations, produced competing narratives of belonging that ethnic federalism both recognized and entrenched. Although early reforms expanded political participation, they lacked institutional safeguards to manage heightened mobilization, enabling rival elites to advance maximalist claims. The erosion of performance-based legitimacy, rising ethnic polarization, and the eruption of deadly conflicts in various regions underscore the limits of liberalization in a deeply divided society. Democratization in Ethiopia thus remains untenable without a renegotiated political settlement balancing autonomy and national unity.

Ondoua Beyene, Blaise, Thierry Mamadou Asngar, Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa, Prisca Koncy Fossoa, and Cyrille Bergali Kamdem. 2025. “Cultural Diffusion and Democracy: What Lessons in Sub-Saharan Africa's Experience?” Politics & Policy 53(1): e70012. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70012.

Ziso, Edson. 2020. “The Political Economy of the Chinese Model in Ethiopia.” Politics & Policy 48(5): 908-931. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12374.

Byrne, Jennifer. 2016. “Contextual Identity among Liberian Refugees in Ghana: Identity Salience in a Protracted Refugee Situation.” Politics & Policy 44(4): 751-782. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12169.

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重新思考埃塞俄比亚的种族和民主转型：身份、联邦制和国家地位危机

埃塞俄比亚2018年的政治开放被广泛解读为历史性的民主突破，但随后的发展轨迹揭示了更深层次的结构性危机，这些危机植根于有争议的国家地位、支离破碎的民族认同和制度脆弱性。根据历史制度主义、民主化理论以及权力和国家建设框架，本文认为，埃塞俄比亚2018年的转型在没有达成巩固民主的基本共识的情况下展开。现代埃塞俄比亚国家的形成是由国家权力的扩张和不同人口的不平衡融合形成的，产生了相互矛盾的归属叙事，种族联邦制既承认又根深蒂固。尽管早期的改革扩大了政治参与，但它们缺乏制度保障来管理高度动员，使敌对的精英能够推进最大化的主张。以政绩为基础的合法性受到侵蚀，种族两极分化加剧，各地区爆发致命冲突，这些都突显了在一个严重分裂的社会中自由化的局限性。因此，如果没有重新谈判的平衡自治和民族统一的政治解决办法，埃塞俄比亚的民主化仍然是站不住脚的。昂杜亚·贝耶恩、布莱斯、蒂埃里·马马杜·阿斯加、布鲁诺·伊曼纽尔·昂戈·恩科亚、普莉斯卡·康西·福索阿和西里尔·贝加利·卡姆登。“文化传播与民主：撒哈拉以南非洲的经验教训？”政治与政策53(1):e70012。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70012。埃德森·齐索，2020。“中国模式在埃塞俄比亚的政治经济学”政治与政策48(5):908-931。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12374。Jennifer Byrne, 2016。加纳利比里亚难民的背景认同：长期难民局势中的身份突出。政治与政策44(4):751-782。https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12169。

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来源期刊

Politics & Policy POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

23.10%

发文量