Investigation of Neutron Intensity Variations in Different Energy Ranges for Diagnosing Hazardous Geodynamic Events

Abstract

Results of studies on variations in neutron intensity in different energy ranges (slow and high-energy ≥100 MeV) obtained at the high-mountain Tien Shan cosmic ray station near the Zailiysky fault are presented. The analysis of atmospheric pressure influence on neutron intensities reveals a common origin between slow and high-energy components. A significant contribution of the lithosphere to the flux of slow neutrons during seismic activity has been established, reaching up to 10–12% above the background level, relative to the long-term background level, defined as the mean value over analogous periods without geophysical disturbances. Observed variations in slow neutron intensity provide additional signals that may serve as potential earthquake precursors. The spectral analysis of low-frequency variations (2006–2024) reveals a 29.5-day periodicity linked to lunar gravitational effects, suggesting a triggering role in geodynamic processes, identified via spectral analysis and complex demodulation methods. However, further research is required to distinguish between correlation and causation in the observed relationships.